10 Jan 2018/Wednesday.   

Dilip Hiro, writer of a book named  ‘Jihad on Two Fronts: South Asia’s unfolding drama ’, had commented way back in 2011 that

 “I don’t think Pakistan will break up. Two countries will make sure that Pakistan doesn’t break. One is America, the other is China. And they have their own reasons for it.”

However, just after seven years the assessment seems to be doubtful with bye-bye to US.

Pakistan Will Break Up, Get Out When You Can: Columnist Cowasjee

Celebrated columnist and writer Ardeshir Cowasjee had predicted on Saturday 21st of July 2007 in Karachi,

 Pakistan ‘is going to break up in the years to come and everyone who can, should pack up their bags and leave’.

Jinnah had said, ‘Pack up and leave if you can. There’s no hope for this country. ‘Each successive government in this country would be worse than the previous one’, and his prediction is coming true,’ Cowasjee told at a get-together in Karachi.

Speculation are rife that withdrawal of US aid is likely to weaken Pakistani war efforts on terror. With Jihadis gaining upper hand Pakistan could face a real threat of break up.

US has virtually pulled out of alliance. However, China factor still remains in the ring and more committed then before. Pakistan’s economy is in shambles and it cannot withstand the burden of engaging mighty India on its borders and at the same time fight its so called war on terror, in spite of taller claims that Pak Army makes for the domestic crowd. The internal situation is quite volatile and political games are being played on a regular basis. Earlier a democratically elected PM was shown the door by a combine troika of Army, Judiciary and religious hard line organisations. Even ministers were not spared, when Pak Army in collusion with a Tehreek -i– Labaik Ya Rasool Allah (TLY) ensured ouster of the Law Minister, Zahid Hamid. Now a political crisis has erupted in Balochistan where the CM has resigned before a No Confidence Motion could be initiated against him. Overall the political situation in Pakistan is far from satisfactory.

Today Pakistan faces insurmountable internal problems and they are likely to increase further as it continues to pursue its policy of “Bleeding India with Thousands of Cuts”, which may force India to decide to cut Pakistan’s size once again. Thus, the chances of Pakistan break-up are much brighter today then they were some time ago. The alliance with the US has ensured that India does not take a stronger military action against Pakistan in spite of its continuous needling and interference in volatile state of J & K.

Balochistan Independence: Balochistan is the largest province of Pakistan and occupies a whopping 44% of the country’s area. How small would Pakistan look like on the global map if Balochistan broke away? What will happen to Chinese ambitious CPEC project and the dreams of prosperity sold to ordinary Pakistanis by its ruling elite?  The Balochs never considered themselves Pakistanis and have been rebelling since 1948, which became much stronger in 2003 onwards. In all thousands have been killed in the conflict so far. The current political crisis looming large in Balochistan is likely to propel the state to further anarchy and ultimately break away. 

 War in Waziristan: The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and other terrorist groups including those aligned to Al-Qaeda and Islamic State have virtually taken over mountainous areas in North-West Pakistan. The Pakistani Army is at a full-fledged war with them. To give you a scale of the operations, about 150,000 soldiers are battling about 30,000 terrorists (an equal number have already been killed). The casualties are high among the security forces too. More than 50,000 civilians have been killed in terrorist attacks since 9/11. The Pakistani strategy of nurturing strategic assets (snakes in back yard) is finally paying back the dividends in the same currency to its mentor.

Unrest in Pakistan occupied Kashmir: This one is a recent developement. Some time back a religious head told a large congregation that PoK was better off with India rather than Pakistan. A few days back people started shouting pro-India slogans and indicated that they wanted to break away from Pakistan. As usual Pakistani authorities have come down hard on them, but that may not work. 

Bye bye democracy: The Pakistani government is one of the weakest around and is at the mercy of the troika of the Pakistani Army, the US Government and terrorist groups. We have seen what happens to weak governments all over the world. Iraq is practically divided into three parts with the government ruling one part, the Kurds one part and balance by the Islamic State (now no more). The Pakistani government is on the verge of collapse and it is predictable that a coup may take place, but even the Army there finally has no answer to the country’s economic woes and the out of control terrorist groups. As one can see, Pakistani is besieged from all fronts.

The break-up of Pakistan is inevitable. They lost Kashmir at the beginning, Bangladesh in between and they could well lose Balochistan tomorrow. Other provinces of Pakistan may follow suite. While the world didn’t care for the disintegration of Iraq and Syria, that is unlikely to happen with Pakistan thanks to its hundreds of nuclear weapons. While it pulled out of Iraq and is pulling out of Afghanistan, don’t be surprised if it occupies Pakistan tomorrow to ensure that the break-up of the country doesn’t lead to nukes falling in the hands of terrorist groups!